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Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction

PredictionSunday, 11 October 2026
Palmeiras64%
1-0likeliest score
Corinthians13%
Draw 23%

Match preview

Palmeiras are strong favourites at home to Corinthians, with a 64% chance of winning. Corinthians win 13% of the time in our model, and the draw is 23%.

We expect around 2.5 goals (Palmeiras 1.8, Corinthians 0.7), which makes over and under 2.5 goals close to a coin flip at 45% for over.

At least one side keeping a clean sheet is the more likely outcome, with both teams scoring at 41%. The single most likely score is 1-0, although with so many possible scorelines, no individual result is likely on its own.

Result chances

Palmeiras win64%
Draw23%
Corinthians win13%

Goals

1.8–0.7Expected goals
45%Over 2.5 goals
55%Under 2.5 goals
41%Both teams score

Palmeiras vs Corinthians: quick answers

Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras are favourites to win, with a 64% chance. Palmeiras 64%, draw 23%, Corinthians 13%.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Our model's most likely score is 1-0. Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.8, Corinthians 0.7.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

There's a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% of under.

Will both teams score?

Both teams score in 41% of our model's outcomes for this match.

These numbers come from our statistical model, which rates each team's attack and defence from recent results. How our predictions work.

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