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Arsenal vs Leeds prediction

PredictionSaturday, 10 October 2026
Arsenal63%
1-0likeliest score
Leeds13%
Draw 24%

Match preview

Arsenal are strong favourites at home to Leeds, with a 63% chance of winning. Leeds win 13% of the time in our model, and the draw is 24%.

We expect around 2.5 goals (Arsenal 1.8, Leeds 0.7), which makes over and under 2.5 goals close to a coin flip at 45% for over.

Both teams scoring is roughly even at 43%. The single most likely score is 1-0, although with so many possible scorelines, no individual result is likely on its own.

Result chances

Arsenal win63%
Draw24%
Leeds win13%

Goals

1.8–0.7Expected goals
45%Over 2.5 goals
55%Under 2.5 goals
43%Both teams score

Arsenal vs Leeds: quick answers

Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds?

Arsenal are favourites to win, with a 63% chance. Arsenal 63%, draw 24%, Leeds 13%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds?

Our model's most likely score is 1-0. Expected goals: Arsenal 1.8, Leeds 0.7.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

There's a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% of under.

Will both teams score?

Both teams score in 43% of our model's outcomes for this match.

These numbers come from our statistical model, which rates each team's attack and defence from recent results. How our predictions work.

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