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Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction

PredictionSaturday, 10 October 2026
Real Madrid66%
2-1likeliest score
Villarreal16%
Draw 18%

Match preview

Real Madrid are strong favourites at home to Villarreal, with a 66% chance of winning. Villarreal win 16% of the time in our model, and the draw is 18%.

Goals look likely. We expect around 3.6 goals in total (Real Madrid 2.5, Villarreal 1.1), with a 70% chance of three or more.

Both teams are more likely than not to score (62%). The single most likely score is 2-1, although with so many possible scorelines, no individual result is likely on its own.

Result chances

Real Madrid win66%
Draw18%
Villarreal win16%

Goals

2.5–1.1Expected goals
70%Over 2.5 goals
30%Under 2.5 goals
62%Both teams score

Real Madrid vs Villarreal: quick answers

Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid are favourites to win, with a 66% chance. Real Madrid 66%, draw 18%, Villarreal 16%.

What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Our model's most likely score is 2-1. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.5, Villarreal 1.1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

There's a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 30% of under.

Will both teams score?

Both teams score in 62% of our model's outcomes for this match.

These numbers come from our statistical model, which rates each team's attack and defence from recent results. How our predictions work.

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