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Predictions / Premier League

Liverpool vs Man City prediction

PredictionSunday, 11 October 2026
Liverpool35%
1-1likeliest score
Man City39%
Draw 26%

Match preview

Our model sees Liverpool vs Man City as a closely matched Premier League game: Liverpool have a 35% chance of winning, Man City 39%, and there's a 26% chance of a draw.

Goals look likely. We expect around 3.0 goals in total (Liverpool 1.5, Man City 1.6), with a 58% chance of three or more.

Both teams are more likely than not to score (62%). The single most likely score is 1-1, although with so many possible scorelines, no individual result is likely on its own.

Result chances

Liverpool win35%
Draw26%
Man City win39%

Goals

1.5–1.6Expected goals
58%Over 2.5 goals
42%Under 2.5 goals
62%Both teams score

Liverpool vs Man City: quick answers

Who will win Liverpool vs Man City?

Man City are favourites to win, with a 39% chance. Liverpool 35%, draw 26%, Man City 39%.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Man City?

Our model's most likely score is 1-1. Expected goals: Liverpool 1.5, Man City 1.6.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

There's a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and 42% of under.

Will both teams score?

Both teams score in 62% of our model's outcomes for this match.

These numbers come from our statistical model, which rates each team's attack and defence from recent results. How our predictions work.

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